Soybean ratings show unexpected rise. Corn declined and spring wheat was unchanged.

Corn ratings fell 1% this week to now 67% good/excellent. The trade expected that 1% decline. For this week corn is rated as #16 out of 38 years.

For corn, specifically, ratings show some accuracy for yield modeling. This week's rating can explain 55% of final yields. This week's rating would imply +0.8% from starting trend. Yield would be 182.5 bpa vs. USDA's 181.0 trend view.

Soybean ratings rose 1% this week to 68% good/excellent. The trade expectation was -1% to 66%. Out of 38 prior years for this week this is #7.

Ratings models have little accuracy at this time. For what little influence they have, today's number would imply soybean yields are currently +1.9% from USDA's starting 52.0 bpa yield, 53.0.

Spring wheat ratings were unchanged from last week at 74% good/excellent. The trade expected -1% to 73%. This week is tied for #2 of 30 years of ratings history.

Harvest was upped from last week's 1% to now 6% complete. The trade estimate was 8%. The five year average is 10%.

Winter wheat advanced from 82% complete last week to now 88%. This was under the 89% expectation. It is just over the 86% five year average.

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