Soybean new crop sales remain a concern.

With shipping included Brazil generally has a price advantage for both old and new crop delivery.

Sales of 376,398 tonnes were reported for US old crop soybean export sales. The trade estimate was 75,000 – 300,000.

At this time of year, with only 5 weeks and 2 days left in the old crop marketing year our focus is on shipments rather than sales. USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date shipments are currently -13% from average. The remainder of the year can see shipments -29% from average and meet USDA's whole-year goal.  This week was a positive one at +13% from average. However, the prior four weeks saw shipments -38%. For now, we would suggest shipments are on target, or perhaps lightly below

New crop bookings, ahead of the September 1 start of the new marketing year, have been a concern. They remain a concern. Today's report, showing 632,134 tonne new crop booking was below the 1,051,176 five year average sale for that week. Year to date bookings, 3.536 million tonnes, are the second lowest in 18 years. USDA sees new crop sales -7% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -63% from the five year average.

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