Corn – Light spillover pressure from wheat yesterday, light spillover pressure from beans last night
↓ As news remains limited for corn, it is once again seeing spill over pressure, this time from beans
↑ March should find better support all through the 470’s, especially near contract lows of 470 ½
↓ There is talk that exports may slow again after the recent surge of improvement, we will see if this is
true as last week’s exports at 1419K were still solid but we haven’t seen 8 AM sales in a while either
↔ Volatility hit a 52 week low which is a sign corn is on a very slow drift lower instead of implying there
are active sellers in this market, small news either way could cause a move in this market
Beans – Moderate SA rains still seen on morning maps, trade no longer pre buying 8 AM sales
↓ Morning 10 day SA maps now call for solid rains BRA days 1 – 5 then ARG again days 6 – 10
↓ Yesterday broke a streak of 8 AM sales, that limits overnight pre buyers anticipating 8 AM sales today
↔ Exports are likely to remain solid on Thursday’s weekly report but possibly not strong enough to
continue a rally past recent highs around 1340 in March
↔ Yesterday March became lead contract making that the contract that should be used for new trades
↔ The recent range in March has been mostly 1320 to 1340 with the lowest low in 2 months at 1311 ¾
Wheat – March CHI back in the recent area it has gravitated to: 610 – 620, exports back to moderate
↔ After the recent surge of China buying, most are expecting exports to east back to a moderate level
of 300K – 500K, recent China buying cause last week’s total to reach 1509K
↔ March CHI keeps coming back to the 610 – 620 range, the most popular area since the China buying
↓ While CHI wheat is mostly sideways, KC continues to have a slight downwards bias, CHI may be
maintaining better support due to the recent China buying of CHI wheat and not KC as was expected
Cattle – BB neutral, showlist lower, futures now priced right in line with last week’s cash trade
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.71 select +2.90 packer BE at 175.47, packer cushion $5.51
↔ BB starts the week as neutral after a slight recovery seen last week, we will see if this week can find
another slow grind higher which would be enough to suggest a change in trend if it is higher this week
↔ Showlist for this week is -16K, slightly supportive but showlist has not been the best guide lately
↔ As of yesterday’s close, the Dec futures were right in line with futures, at one point on the slide
futures reached as much as a $9 discount to cash but as of yesterday cash/futures are right in line
↑ Speculators continue to put a slight upwards bias in cattle which is following BB so far but might see a
little more bias from a seasonal trend for a recovery right now