Soybean and spring wheat planting exceed expectations.

Nationwide corn planting advanced from 12% complete to now 27% over the past week. That was on the trade expectation. This number is over the 22% complete past from the average of the prior five years. We assume planting may slip back to near average levels by the coming May 10 WASDE report. While April's early planting gets some trade attention the real focus is this week and the next two.

Nationwide soybean planting advanced from 8% complete to now 18% over the past week. The trade expectation was 17%. The five year average is 10%. This is a record planting pace for soybeans. The peak week for planting is typically the third week of May.

Spring wheat planting advanced from 15% complete to now 34%. This was much over the 27% expectation. The five year average, for comparison, is 19%.

Current planting is not at a record pace. Not at all. But last week's +19% gain was impressive. It was the best effort for that week in nine years. The largest planting week historically is the third week of May.

Winter wheat ratings dropped 1% to now 49% good/excellent condition. That was on the trade expectation. The five year average for this week is 45%.

Ratings at this time are not a great proxy for final yields. Historically this week's ratings only explain 26% of final yield variance. That improves to 41% on June 2.

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