Second lowest soybean sale for this week in 30 years.

Sales of 164,475 tonnes were reported for soybeans. The trade estimate was 500,000 – 1,050,000. This was the second worst sale for this week in 30 years. USDA’s 1.755 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -11% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are currently -11% from average. To meet USDA’s goal the remaining weeks through August need to run -10% from average. This week was a clear miss at -80% from average. Last week was also quite poor at -47%. Brazil maintains a clear pricing advantage.

If remaining sales run -20% from average we'll miss USDA's current whole-year goal by 42 million bushels.

While sales have been up and down in recent weeks shipments have been a consistent concern. USDA's export goal would require the rest of the year to ship -5% from average. This week was -39%. Over the recent 12 weeks shipments have averaged -27%.

Allendale is now -20 million bushels vs. USDA on exports. Until crush is increased on USDA's balance sheet the trade is looking at 300 mb stocks or just above.

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