Corn – Funds cover 13K shorts, pre report buying expected to pick up this week, resistance at 450
↑ Funds continued slowly covering shorts buying another 13K, now short 243K or 71% of record
↑ Pre buying is expected ahead of Thursday’s acreage report both due to expectations that corn
acreage will be lower, funds exiting and the quarterly stocks potentially being slightly bullish
↓ Chart resistance is at 450, both from being the next round number and a 5 month downtrend line
↑ Slow fund short covering is expected to continue this week ahead of acreage and end of month trade
Beans – Funds cover 7K, still showing a chart slowly grinding higher, some expect export improvement
↑ Funds are slowly covering shorts buying 7K, now short 148K or 86% of record
↔ Acreage for beans is expected to move higher on Thursday’s report but with total acreage between
corn/beans/wheat expected lower we still have reason to expect light support ahead of Thursday
↓ Also on Thursday along with acreage we will get a quarterly stocks update which might be bearish for
beans given the recent streak of poor exports
↔ The latest 8 AM sales last week looked to cause some to believe that China buying had returned but
for now that appears unlikely until BRA/ARG price moves higher or US moves lower
Wheat – The 2nd largest Russia wheat exporter has slowed exports due to certification issues
↑ Late Friday and last night wheat has been supported on the talk that the 2nd largest wheat exporter
from Russia had slowed exports due to certification issues, an issue to watch going forward
↔ Following the acreage report we expect wheat to turn 80% of attention to US HRW weather, that
would likely be happening already until this latest Russian headline caused an overseas price spike
↔ We should watch the 10 day rainfall outlook for HRW areas for influence next week
Cattle – Placements at 109.7 higher than expected, funds quiet, BB lower from Friday
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice -3.01 Select -2.26 packer BE at 194.37, packer cushion $8.52
↓ Placements on Friday were higher than expected at 109.7, a slightly bearish number but again not as
bad as it looks at first keeping in mind last month was down 7% and this month it is up 9.7%
↓ BB moderately lower, only 1 lower report so far but likely to add pressure with Placements higher
↔ It remains that BB should not be seen as concerning unless it moves lower 3 days in a row, packer
profits still above $8 is not a level considered “concerning” this year
↔ Recent chart support for June is around 182, 2 month lows are at 179.825