Corn – Quarterly stocks 83 mln bu lower than expected, support may now continue to Oct 11th
↑ Quarterly stocks came in 83 mln bu lower than expected yesterday, with exports slightly poor and ethanol running at a moderate pace the assumption is the lower stocks is from higher feed use
↔The above factor suggests corn feeding up 29.4% which is interesting given fewer cattle numbers
↑ Yesterday’s report may not continue a rally but should help to maintain support up to the October 11th monthly Supply/Demand report as it highly likely to lower ending stocks on that report
↔Harvest is at 21%, the true core of harvest is over the next 3 weeks
Beans – Quarterly stocks 9 mln bu below expectations, rains added for BRA and ARG in the 6- 10 day
↔ Quarterly stocks 9 mln bu below analyst expectations, slightly lower, not enough for an added rally
↓ SA weather maps are getting talk so let’s mention that BRA/ARG both see improved rains in the 6 – 10 day, if we want to turn attention to SA weather just watch out for US news as larger influence
↔We are seeing regular small 8 AM sales of beans to China/unknown, still at a moderate over all pace
↑ Funds are down to 40% of record shorts which is a smaller number but they are not yet flat, occasional buying from them is still expected, same for corn but on a slightly smaller scale
↔Harvest is at 26% and likely to see amazing pace this week with a clear 10 day forecast
Wheat – Dryness is raising concern on total acreage planted, exports are concerning
↑ Some are starting to suggest that HRW acres could be reduced 10% - 15% due to dryness, maybe it is a bit early to make that claim but it is helping to offer some support
↓ Support is needed from other factors as our normal main factor of exports continue to be poor
↔HRW planting is 39%, still 1% ahead of average
Cattle – Showlist +600, BB on a 1 day bounce so far, packers starting the week negative gross profits
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.39 select +2.45 packer BE at 184.98, packer cushion -$0.13
↔A BB bounce helped yesterday but still starts the week with packer gross profits at -$0.13, the lowest starting profit level for the year for packers, very tough to assume they will pay higher this week
↔The BB bounce is now a 1 day streak, a minimum of 3 days is needed to catch meaningful attention
↔Last week’s average cash very close to expectations at +$1.99, showlist neutral at +600
↔Early cash bids are not expected this week so most focus today may remain on AM BB