Ratings slip for corn but still-strong on soybeans. Final winter wheat ratings imply above-trend yields.

Corn ratings fell another 2% in the latest week to now 67% good/excellent. The trade estimate was 68%. This now puts corn in mixed territory. We have 38 years of crop ratings history with corn. There are 22 better years at this specific week, 2 equal and 14 below.

While we will point out ratings models have only a moderate accuracy at this time of year, this week's number would imply -1.4% from starting trend. That would be 178.4 bpa vs. 181.0 starting trend. Allendale, for the coming July 12 report is currently expecting no change in USDA's view of trend.

Pollination has now been seen in the lower portion of the Midwest. Peak rates for the Midwest will be in the third or four week of the month.

Soybean ratings were left unchanged from the prior week at 67% good/excellent. The trade expectation was -1% to 66%. Of the past 38 years of ratings history, this is tied for #12 for this week. Ratings models have little accuracy at this time. For what little influence they have, today's number would imply soybean yields are currently +0.3% from USDA's starting 52.0 bpa yield, 52.2. For the coming July 12 report we assume trend yields.

The start of the long reproductive process has begun. Blooming is 20% complete and pod set is 3% complete.

Spring wheat ratings gained back 1% from last week's sharp 5% decline. Now at 72% good/excellent they are over the trade's 72% expectation. This is tied for #11 of the prior 30 years of ratings history.

Winter wheat ratings dropped by 1% in the latest week to 51% good/excellent condition. The trade expected no change from last week's 52%. The five year average for this week is 47%. Ratings models at the end of the year have moderate accuracy for winter wheat. The last rating of the year can explain 44% of final yields. A model using today's number would suggest final yields +2.6% vs. trend. Based on anecdotal harvest reports we would expect this or perhaps a little better. This is the last ratings report of the year. Only harvested will be reported here after.

Harvest improved from 41% last week to now 54%. This was on the trade expectation. It is over the 39% five year average.

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