Corn – Rains totals increased on this morning’s 1 – 5 day map, exports may be expected strong today
↑ Now that we are in the growing season if we see a sudden move we might first check weather maps before anything else and morning maps increased rain totals on the 1 – 5 day for MN/IA/MO
↑ Last week’s exports were strong at 1562K, overnight might be anticipating strong exports today
↓ July corn had a high last night near the first resistance level of 457, the other levels are 458 ¾ and 460
↔Ethanol was poor yesterday, not yet concerning but the yearlong pace is now +4.1% compared to last year while the USDA has factored in a pace of +4.3% compared to last year
↔Rains this week may slow planting pace on Monday back to average or slightly below average levels
Beans – Supported by the rainfall forecast as well, exports likely to be poor on today’s report
↑ Increased rain likely supporting beans, trade is following planting pace closely, a rally last week based on rain in the forecast, then lower trade Tuesday when the planting pace for beans was a record and now support again on the thought that the next planting pace on Monday will show the slowdown
↓ Exports are expected poor today, beans have only seen 3 strong export reports all year
↔July has a wide trading range of 1145 ¾ to 1196, this means we can see sizable swings higher or lower on a daily basis without making a significant move on the chart
↔ARG port strikes have been settled but tensions remain high so more strike headlines are likely
Wheat – Last week’s exports rebounded, overnight expecting that again, half of HRW areas see rain
↑ Last week’s wheat exports rebounded to 456K, overnight may be expecting a number like that today
↔Weather for HRW areas is mixed as the western half of HRW areas remain dry while the eastern half sees solid rains, not a common forecast to see an east/west split instead of a north/south split in rains
↔It isn’t the focus right now but certainly doesn’t hurt that overseas wheat has been rallying since 3/6
Cattle – NE traded anywhere from 185 – 187 yesterday (last week 184.94 for that area), BB still lower
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.83 Select -1.88 packer BE at 184.66, packer cushion $2.30
↑ After the futures close yesterday NE cash trades were anywhere from 185 to 187 which is steady to $2 higher, keep in mind that last week the average even for NE was $1 lower than most trades reported
↓ BB continues to new lows, packers paying higher cash for cattle while gross profits (likely net losses) moves lower is something that can only continue for so long, futures will be cautious of this
↔No new bird flu headlines, still tough to link the recent setback to headlines when BB continues lower and a higher showlist implies a lower cash trade this week (although NE traded well yesterday)