Corn – One more rain system early this week then more clearing days 3 – 10, funds buyers
↑↓ There is one more rain system expected early this week to offer some support today but then the forecast clears for central and western areas days 3 – 10 to allow planting pace to pick up again
↑ Funds are still actively covering short positions, buyers of 21K, still short 218K or 64% of record
↔Friday’s first new crop estimate for corn is expected to be moderate, waiting to see first estimates
↓ Last week took out some important resistance points to make moving higher “easier” but more news needed for a continued bounce and this week the forecast and May crop report look slightly bearish
↔The “easier” upside may be seen again on the next weather threat whenever that might be
Beans – China back from holiday, forecast offers clearing, funds somewhat surprisingly quiet
↑↓ Like corn the forecast suggests a planting pace that is initially bullish then turns to bearish
↓ Friday we get the May crop report which will show first estimates for new crop carryout and with beans seeing more acreage this year, the first carryout number on Friday is likely to be bearish
↔Funds were almost silent on Friday’s COT report which makes sense if they are expecting a large new crop number on Friday, that would explain why they covered corn/wheat shorts but not beans
↔Weather is always a risk and could be positive for price just like in corn and like we saw last week but beans will continue a slight bearish bias due to more acreage this year and so far, poor exports
Wheat – Weekend rains were moderate KS and solid for OK/TX, funds covered 28K shorts
↓ Moderate rains in KS and solid rains OK/TX may give trade reason to expect an increase in GTE today
↑ Funds covered 28K shorts, now short 48K or 29% of record, the difference with wheat is that sometimes funds never reach back to flat when short covering like they do in corn/beans
↔The above statement means that funds could stop their short covering in wheat at any time now
Cattle – Last week’s average cash trade likely near +$2, futures finished factoring in +$2, funds quiet
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.30 Select -0.33 packer BE at 184.74, packer cushion $2.38
↔Futures finished last week pricing in +$2 cash, likely close to what we will see on today’s report
↔A major issue will be that if BB does not recover then packer profits this week will be near $0 which is not impossible but difficult to expect another higher cash trade this week
↔If we are going to see more numbers short term, this week may post the 3rd higher showlist in a row
↓ Funds were light sellers of 2K, they haven’t really seemed to be a major influence in recent weeks
↔Average cash, showlist and BB will all be important reports to see for today