Corn – Ethanol expected slightly poor, funds quiet again yesterday, seeing a few more 8 AM sales
↓ Ethanol will be expected slightly poor today due to seeing 5 weeks in a row of slightly poor reports
↑ Corn has seen a few more 8 AM sales, weekly exports tomorrow expected slightly positive
↔Funds may have been light buyers Monday but quiet again yesterday, given they only have a “small” amount of shorts left to cover this may be the pattern we see, a change to more occasional fund buying
↔Weather maps not clear but also not a wash out, morning 10 day maps suggest planting should easily pass 75% on Monday which is the level trade switches over to a summer mindset (rain = grain)
Beans – Some improvement in 8 AM sales, a change to export prices to China, 6 – 10 day map clear
↑ Beans have seen a couple small 8 AM sales and much more is needed, weekly bean sales have run slightly poor to quite poor in 9 of the last 10 weekly reports
↔BRA beans are no longer significantly cheaper to China compared to the US, this has some thinking Chinese purchases will start to pick up soon, let’s see if we find signs of that from 8 AM sales reports
↓ The morning 6 – 10 day map is one of the clearest weather maps seen all spring, this should help to move bean planting past 75% by the June 3rd planting report, likely well past 75%
↓ This morning Nov is back near 1220 rand is likely to see resistance near that level again today
Wheat – Funds may be covering shorts quicker due to Russia concerns, debate over weather damage
↑ While funds were quiet in corn/beans, there were signs of fund short covering yesterday like due to Russia/Ukraine weather concerns, as of a week ago funds were still short 28K wheat (17% of record)
↑↓ Private analysts continue to lower their estimates on Russia/Ukraine production, these analysts say 20% - 30% of production was affected yet Ukraine’s state weather agency said that recent frosts didn’t cause any significant damage to the winter wheat crops saying temps did not drop cold enough
Cattle – Futures with one of the boldest pre buying seen since last fall while BB still at key resistance
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.32 Select +1.52 packer BE at 194.91, packer cushion $8.55
↑ Futures have reached a level assuming a $3 higher cash trade this week, one of the largest pre buying runs seen since last fall’s active correction, packer profits are at a level to assume higher cash this week
↔BB has lifted packer profits enough to assume higher cash but has not yet taken out key resistance, choice + select is at 614 which is very close to taking out 617 resistance but has not done so yet
↑ Estimates on Placements for Friday’s COT report is at 93.9, this will likely attract more spec buying
↑↔Packer profits suggest short term higher cash, BB has not yet suggested long term higher just yet