Corn – A very large portion of exports are new crop, PF Tour confirming strong yields, short covering?
↔A very large portion of yesterday's export sales was in new crop, the old crop portion was actually a marketing year low, typically seeing old crop sales is more immediately supportive than new crop
↓ The PF Tour appears to be confirming a large crop as the USDA suggested, with the PF tour typically estimating yields lower than actual, some in trade may expect another yield increase in the USDA soon
↑ The 390 level should be expected as support again, may even bring in fund short covering again
↔All focus is on yields right now, most every other factor is likely to take a back seat to yield estimates
Beans – Nov back near 955 support, exports strong for new crop but old crop sales still slow
↑ The last pullback low for Nov was 955, support will be expected near that level again on the next test
↔Like corn, most of yesterday's strong bean exports came from new crop instead of old crop, with a large amount of old crop coming in exports are needed to pick up for that old crop supply
↔Nov may be carving out a 955 to 985 range, this is a level that would assume another yield increase from the USDA in coming months and the crop tour data doesn't dispute that
↔Regular 8 AM exports are expected now, keep a close watch to see if any of these are old crop
Wheat – Rail workers did strike yesterday with no resolution, overseas continues to move lower
↓ Trade has taken a bearish outlook on the rail strike for wheat, making this worth watching headlines
↓ Overseas wheat moved a fair amount to new lows yesterday, each low is a new low on the year
↔Exports picked up to 493K, a number over 550K is needed to start looking strong
Cattle – Panic eased in outside markets and also eased in cattle, that pattern continues overnight
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.78 select +0.95 packer BE at 196.22, packer cushion $10.38
↑ Panic eased yesterday and overnight trade continued to ease panic in outside markets, that may mean the same for cattle which could find better support if panic eases further today
↑ BB has slowly moved back to the top of the recent range and has packer profits above $10, keep in mind that packer profit level is before factoring in this week’s $3 lower cash trade, so more like $13
↔Cattle have recently run into full panic mode and BB continues to suggest that panic isn’t needed
↔There were no additional cash new posts yesterday, likely that a bulk of trade was done Tuesday
↔Today’s COF report may have minimal impact as trade focuses on panic right now