Corn – GTE remains at 67%, active cash selling expected each penny over 400, fund short covering
↓ GTE remained at 67% when normally the GTE falls later in the year, this still suggests a strong crop
↑ There were signs of fund short covering resuming yesterday after taking a week off, OI -18K
↓ We have seen active cash selling at any level over 400 in the last few weeks and that will be expected again as it is unlikely all old crop cash has been moved at this point
↔The PF Tour continues on and while once again posting pictures of low yields, trade is very set on a yield of 183 or higher, unlikely the tour will make any true difference to price levels
↔One analyst mentioned the PF Tour under estimated yield by an average of 5.3 bu the last 2 years and has underestimated yield 9 out of 12 years, those are statistics all larger traders are aware of
Beans – Maps increase rains slightly, waiting to see where cash selling steps in, funds appear quiet
↓ Morning maps added some rains back in to the 6 – 10 day outlook, temperatures still warm
↔In corn we have multiple bounces to show where cash selling starts to step in but for beans we have not even seen once bounce to find that out, cash selling would be expected with Nov near 1000
↔The first chart levels to pass before corn/beans start to look like a recovery would be last week’s high in corn at 403 ¾ and a downtrend line in beans crossing at 1021 ½
↔As active as funds are in corn, open interest still suggests they are quiet in beans
Wheat – Overseas quiet but still near lows, CHI wheat similar lately, news remains mostly quiet
↔Overnight trade is still following overseas, day session trade follows it 50% of the time
↔Like overseas, Dec CHI wheat is down near lows but staying there for now, not continuing lower yet
↔Other news for wheat is quiet, the only talking point is exports and they continue to be moderate
Cattle – Ave cash trade higher than expected, showlist -13K, BB lower but still strong for this week
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.90 select -0.58 packer BE at 196.08, packer cushion $10.24
↑ Last week average cash trade was -1.61 which was higher than expected, showlist is -13K
↑ Even after yesterday’s BB setback packer profits are still above $10 which has been rare this year
↔As of yesterday’s close, futures were priced $2 under cash, still slightly defensive but not extreme
↔After years of a clear trend in boxed beef, over the last month it has been choppy and sideways making the BB report something to watch daily for both bullish and bearish influence