Corn – Moderate to strong exports expected, support seen again around 480, volume likely to slow
↑ Moderate (1200K) to strong (1500K+) exports are expected on today’s weekly report
↑ March moved under 480 slightly yesterday but for the most part 480 area support still being seen
↔ Those short term trading corn may look to take smaller profits as volume and volatility still slowing
↔ The slower volume may also mean lower resistance like seen last time topping out at 488
↔ Corn may continue to see most direction due to spill over influence from beans/wheat
Beans – Exports expected moderate, recent 8 AM sales also moderate, 1300 area support holds again
↑ Weekly exports expected moderate (1000K) to possibly slightly strong (1200K+)
↑ Three 8 AM sales reports in a row have totaled a moderate 455K, enough for light support
↔ Yesterday showed that the 1300 area is still acting as a solid chart support level
↓ SA weather maps still solid, ARG active rains days 1 to 5 and BRA active rains days 6 to 10
↔ Yesterday saw a bearish reaction to the ARG headline over devaluing the peso and discussing
elimination of export taxes, something to keep watch on but resistance may ease up today
Wheat – Exports will show China buying, otherwise moderate, March CHI still gravitating to 610 area
↑ Exports will show the China buying totals so they will likely be strong, the question is “how much
buying was seen beyond the 8 AM sales we already know?”
↔ March CHI continues to gravitate around 610 which is an improvement since seeing the China
purchases, before that time March CHI was 580 – 590
↔ Exports will continue as #1 factor but may also see occasional influence from Black Sea headlines
Cattle – BB broke the streak of 2 higher days, NE reported cash trades -$0.50 to -$1.00
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.14 select +0.55 packer BE at 174.89, packer cushion $3.91
↓ BB broke the streak of 2 higher BB reports in a row, we still have not seen 3 higher reports in a row
since October 24th
, this means it is technically still too early to say BB is truly recovering
↓ NE traded cash -$0.50 to -$1.00, disappointing when early week buyers were expected +$1 to +$2
↔ Early in the week we saw smaller speculators aggressively buy on very little news, knowing that we
need to keep in mind this same group will quickly sell back if news turns slightly negative again
↔ Some early week buying might have been fund related but a bulk of it looks to have been small spec