Corn – Planting 12%, average is 10%, weather maps further increased rains for core planting areas
↔Planting at 12% is now slightly ahead of average, could have been a surge before upcoming rain
↑ Yesterday’s 10 day maps showed the first small weather concern with moderate rains in the 10 day outlook for MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, IN and OH, this morning rainfall totals were increased a bit more
↔With funds heavily short we should be on the watch for small weather concerns to see a larger bounce than expected, funds are aggressively short and exiting can cause sudden aggressive bounces
↔Also keep in mind that producer cash selling was aggressive the last few weeks which means weather related concerns will see less cash selling resistance now
↓ July has multiple chart resistance levels coming up at 457, 458 ¾, and 460
Beans – Planting 8%, average is 4%, also supported by a forecast adding rain this morning
↑ Planting off to an early head start at 8%, upcoming rains in the 10 day outlook likely to slow pace
↑ Just like corn both fund short covering can increase the amount of a bounce expected even from a minor weather concern and like corn cash selling may be more limited than normal as well
↔We are at the time of the year where checking the 10 day forecast every morning will likely explain
70% or more of the day to day moves in the markets
↔There isn’t much chart resistance on July until around the 1200 – 1225 area
Wheat – Planting 15%, average is 10%, GTE down 5% to 50%, some helpful HRW rains in the forecast
↔Planting ahead of pace at 15%, traders pre bought an expected lower GTE rating and it fell 5%
↑ Wheat could see more support today as a 5% drop in GTE was likely even more than expected
↔There are light to moderate HRW rains in the forecast, could keep GTE ratings steady next week
Cattle – Yesterday was an entire day celebrating the Placements number, other fundamentals quiet
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.26 Select +1.04 packer BE at 186.63, packer cushion $4.72
↔Trade reacted in a big way yesterday to the Placements number as we have seen speculators do many times before, they spent the entire day adding regular support but a few factors to consider…
↔BB has recovered slightly, packer profits are near $5 which is not yet a number to be excited over
↔Showlist is at +1600 which is mostly neutral, a regular streak of higher showlists expected soon
↓ June left a chart gap and cattle traditionally likes to fill chart gaps quickly, the gap left yesterday would need a setback to 175.875 to be filled
↓ There is reason to be bullish longer term but short term we are expecting an influx of cattle numbers