Corn – Planting 27% (22% ave), forecast maps still have solid rain, OI still actively falling
↓ Planting at 27% is still above average and limited some concerns trade may have had about slowing
↔This report’s planting pace reflects how active planters were before rains moved in, if there is an actual slowing on a Monday report it may not be until this coming Monday
↑ Forecast maps are not as active with rain as last week but far from a clear forecast for planting yet
↔Open interest fell a large amount again yesterday by 40K, an OI drop of this size typically suggests fund short covering but given the lack of support is the fund buying being offset with cash selling?
↔With today being end of month we’ll see if OI falls again today on end of month fund short covering
Beans – Planting 18% (10% ave), “strike season” begins again in ARG offering light support
↓ Planting at 18% is not only ahead of average, it’s a record for this week, previous record last year 16%
↑ A small amount of support yesterday may have been caused by ARG port workers going on strike, something so common now that it can be labeled “strike season”, a few extra US exports are possible
↔Even if rains this week do slow planting, for beans it may only slow planting back to an average pace
↔Funds hold a larger position in beans (87% record) as compared to corn (70%) and wheat (47%), this means if end of month or other fund short covering is seen the beans may see the most support
↓ July’s high yesterday of 1190 ¼ was close to first resistance of 1197, still look for that to hold for now
Wheat – HRW GTE down 1% to 51%, spring wheat planting 34%, largest planting gain in 9 years
↓ Spring planting pace was the largest in 9 years, like beans a large increase for just 1 week
↔HRW GTE ratings at 51% is still at a very strong level, too high to be considered supportive
↓ HRW areas have solid rains on all 10 days of the morning GFS maps
Cattle – Futures ease back as the cash trade report was +0.42 at 182.36, BB choppy/still sideways
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.39 Select +1.49 packer BE at 186.61, packer cushion $4.25
↓ Futures pre priced in a cash level last week well above the actual level of +$0.42 at 182.36
↓ Even after yesterday April is still priced well over that cash level and June is pricing in only a 5.8% summer cash setback (10% is average and on lower numbers this year even 6% - 8% is likely)
↓ Showlist this week is +13,500, not huge but tough to assume a higher cash trade with that number
↔BB has been choppy for 2 ½ weeks and through yesterday remains mostly sideways