Planting Gets Going, Open Interest Declines

Corn – Planting at 6%, average is 5%, another setback on open interest decline suggests cash selling

↔Corn planting was at 6%, the 5 year average is 5%, analysts expected 7%

↓ Seeing pressure come in after Friday’s bounce near 450 and seeing it happen on an open interest

decline of 9K both suggest that yesterday was yet another round of cash selling

↔For corn, cash selling is still expected on bounces but not expected to drive price significantly lower

↑ Both yesterday and overnight support was found in July at 442 ¼, still seeing support near 440

↔Active rains are seen in the 1 – 5 day forecast then a wide spread clearing seen days 6 - 10

Beans – Planting at 3%, average is 3%, crush strong at 196.4 mil bu, July holds last weeks lows for now

↔Planting right on normal pace at 3%, analysts were expecting 2%

↑ Crush remained strong on yesterday’s report at 196.4 mil bu, a supportive demand factor for beans

↔Yesterday’s trade was lower again but did not take out last week’s lows in July which are at 1163 ¾

↔We already know to expect Thursday’s exports to be strong due to recent 8 AM sales but after 11

weeks of below average exports, it will take more to cause active support in beans

↔An open interest increase of 2K suggests a part of yesterday’s setback could be fund related but

likely most of it still being cash selling like we have seen recently

Wheat – Spring planting at 7%, average is 6%, HRW GTE down 1% to 55%, 45% is average

↔Spring planting still very close to average pace, planting may be slowed by rains this week

↑ The GTE rating fell 1% which may be short term supportive but it is still far above the 45% average

↔KC has been looking slightly stronger than CHI wheat, KC appears to have a slow grind higher while

CHI wheat on the chart shows a setback and recently more sideways

Cattle – Clear signs of fund buying yesterday, PM BB disappointing, showlist -24,500

↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.31 Select -4.20 packer BE at 188.03, packer cushion $6.12

↑ Yesterday showed volume spikes and trading patterns to suggest a 90% chance that most of

yesterday’s support came from funds buying back some of the 16K they had sold during bird flu

↓ Yesterday’s AM BB was slightly higher but a disappointment on the PM BB which was actively lower

↔This week has a -24,500 showlist which implies a higher cash trade but a packer profit level of $6.12

still suggests packers may do what they can to resist paying higher cash this week

↔We will see if fund trade returns this morning, if they don’t then the current fundamentals are mixed

which doesn’t suggest we will be seeing an cash bid today