Corn – A lack of fresh news has corn following beans and following Friday’s trading pattern
↓ A shortage of fresh news suggests corn will follow beans/wheat along with how Friday’s day session
ended which was down 5 ½ for March
↑ March is back to the 440 support area with the last pullback reaching 436 ¾
↓ Funds were sellers of 5K on Friday COT report which looks back through last Tuesday, recent open
interest updates suggest funds have been quiet since last Wednesday however
↔ The 2 weekly demand reports were mixed last week with ethanol poor and exports supportive
Beans – Following Friday’s day session, funds sellers of 15K, better support expected around 1200
↓ Moderate pressure has been seen since Thursday morning’s weekly exports were poor at 561K
↓ Friday’s COT report showed funds sellers of 15K, now short 92K, 54% of record short
↓ Unlike corn, open interest continued to increase 8K on Friday suggesting funds may still be selling
↑ Overnight moved below 1200 but is still an area where better support is expected, the last time 1200
was tested was fall 2021 where support was found in that area but did post 2 lows of 1184 ½, 1181 ¼
↔ Trade appears to be reacting less to SA weather map updates now, morning 1 - 5 day mostly dry for
BRA/ARG, the 6 – 10 day returns moderate rains but nothing highly active
Wheat – Overseas wheat made new 3 year lows last night spilling some pressure over to US wheat
↓ After a weeklong streak of sideways trade, overseas wheat made new 3 year lows last night
↔ Funds were buyers of 4K, they have slowed their overall wheat trading, not short covering yet
↔ With overseas making multi-year lows it is a factor we need to watch daily for influence
Cattle – Average cash trade likely around 176, BB finished last week right at recent highs
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.85 select +1.28 packer BE at 187.22, packer cushion $13.98
↑ A guess of last week’s average cash trade would be around 176, futures are priced assuming 178
↑ BB did setback slightly but ended last week right back at the highs of the recent recovery
↑ Funds were buyers of 4K, nothing aggressive yet but a little more active than seen the recent 5 weeks
↑ Packer profits will move lower after seeing last week’s average cash trade what is likely to remain
around $10 which is high enough to have a slight positive bias for cash trade expectations this week
↓ First chart resistance for April is the 100 day MA which today is at 182.95