Corn – Funds sell 17K, now short 314K or 98% of record, May is now lead contract
↑ Overnight may again be looking for fund short covering after 8:30 now with funds near record
↔ Funds being near record short should attract more speculative buyers who are waiting for them to cover shorts, even at this point there are signs they are still selling though
↔ May becomes lead contract today making the 400 level of support apply to that contract now
↓ For now, until there are clear signs of fund short covering we need to assume the selling will continue
↔ With funds now at/near record shorts we should continue seeing regular rounds of speculative buying, speculators know that they could try buying 15 times and lose a small amount if it means the 16th buy happens to be just ahead of fund short covering, they would still likely make small profits
Beans – Funds sell 4K, now short 135K or 80% of record, overnight also expecting short covering soon
↑ Overnight bean traders also expecting fund short covering to happen soon, even at 80% of record short it is impossible to know when to expect that to start
↓ Fundamentals remain on the bearish side, even with the recent price break exports remain slow
↔ Overnight trade left a new chart gap on the May chart which could be a first target to fill, that chart gap for May is at 1177 ½
↓ BRA harvest is ahead of normal, currently at 32% compared to 25% last year
Wheat – Overseas made new lows again while US markets were closed, funds bought 11K wheat
↓ Overseas again made new 3 year lows while US trade was closed yesterday
↔ Funds bought 11K on the COT report, with only a 56K (34% record) short, there aren’t as many speculators trying to buy wheat ahead of the short covering that may have already started last week
↓ CHI wheat continues to fall quicker than MN/KC as it catches up to selling seen first in those markets
Cattle – Last week average cash trade 179.91 (-$1.75), BB higher, showlist -9500
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.89 select +0.74 packer BE at 185.58, packer cushion $5.67
↓ Despite most talk last week of higher cash trades, the national average was down $1.75 at 179.91
↔ The average cash trade report was not drastically lower than talked last week but it is likely that most in trade expected a number closer to 181 than 180
↑ BB continues a slow grind higher has packer profits back over $5, a profit level of $7 or more is still needed to start a week with the assumption of an aggressive cash bid from packers
↑ Showlist posted yesterday was -9500, expected low enough to generate at least $1 higher cash