Corn – A drift lower continues, open interest suggests funds may still be selling, ethanol tomorrow
↓ The expected slow drift lower continues, not very much in the way of new bearish news but more of
the fact there is little bullish news expected over the next couple months
↓ Open interest increased by 17,644 yesterday which suggests funds are still adding to shorts
↔ With corn at lows not seen since late 2020 there are very few chart levels to use for support
↔ Ethanol has been strong in recent weeks we will see on tomorrow’s report if that continues
↓ Exports have been poor the last 2 weeks, USDA’s export numbers imply this will continue
Beans – Rains improved for BRA this morning, ARG still dry, strong crush not enough for support
↓ Morning maps improved rains for BRA, ARG still dry but we need to keep in mind like we saw last
year BRA rains are larger impact on bean pricing than ARG rains
↓ Like corn, beans saw an open interest increase of 9K yesterday suggesting funds are still lightly selling
↔ More private analysts are cutting BRA production numbers, some as low as 150 MMT, we can see
through price that trade does not agree with this large of a cut, CONAB is at 155.2 MMT, last year 154.6
↑ NOPA crush was at a record yesterday at 195.3 mil bu
↓ All grains are dealing with the issue that no news is bad news for now simply due to the fact there are
no more anticipated USDA reports to offer support, the “easiest” path is lower in the short term
Wheat – Caught up in selling along with other grains yesterday despite the positive USDA report
↑ Overnight still adding support, possibly due to Friday’s report being slightly positive
↓ Overseas wheat is grinding lower which may also be spilling over resistance to US wheat
↓ Open interest was up 10K yesterday, which is a sign that funds have resumed selling wheat as well
Cattle – BB now jumping higher, futures trade still cautious, April has not broken out higher yet
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +3.57 select +7.42 packer BE at 172.55, packer cushion $10.79
↑ BB continues to move aggressively higher, packer profits now back over $10 which is a level not seen
since early September last year
↑ Futures are adding support but remain on the cautious side, April is lead contract and has not yet
taken out recent highs which are at 172.725
↔ There is also still no sign of fund support they remain on the sidelines since liquidating longs
↔ Feb futures are pricing in a cash trade this week around steady to $0.50 lower, most signs would
point to at least $1 higher this week, we will see what we get for starting bids