Corn – Signs again of moderate to active fund short covering yesterday, cash selling continues as well
↑ Open interest was down 60K yesterday, that number is large enough to suggest both that some are exciting September contracts and not rolling as well as suggesting active fund short covering
↓ Cash selling remains consistent, when fund buying eases in the morning there is a drift back lower as the cash selling continues to add light pressure
↔Ethanol was moderate yesterday at 1071K, exports are expected moderate today around 1200K
↔The trading range is narrowing further, we are seeing better support when Dec falls into the 380’s but also a large pickup in resistance just barely above 390
Beans – Exports expected strong to very strong today, Nov on an overall very slow recovery
↑ Exports are expected very strong today around 2000K, most of this is likely to be new crop
↑ If there is a supportive day of the week for beans it would be seeing weekly exports on Thursdays, bean exports have improved 6 weeks in a row and are now at a sizable strong level
↔Still no signs of fund activity like we continue to see in corn/wheat, they hold a 98% record short
↓ First sizeable chart resistance will be a downtrend line crossing today at 997
Wheat – Signs of fund short covering again yesterday, not as many willing US sellers as EU sellers
↓ It continues that overnight Euro traders are more willing sellers than traders here in the US after 8:30
↑ When fund buying comes in at the start of the day session they haven’t been overly active but there simply are not as many US sellers after 8:30 as there is Euro sellers in overnight trade
↔Exports have been improving lately but today is still expected to be moderate around 450K
Cattle – Choice + Select fell to 90 day lows causing light selling, a $1 higher cash trade seen in NE
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -4.68 select -2.62 packer BE at 195.61, packer cushion $8.74
↔Both bullish and bearish news seen yesterday in cattle, the first news is good short term:
↑ After the close yesterday NE reported a few trades at $1 higher (185.50)
↓ The PM BB dropped CH + SEL to new 90 day lows which is unlikely to affect this week’s cash but starts to paint a more negative cash picture for upcoming weeks
↔We see above that even on that BB setback yesterday packer profits are still around $9 which is above the $7 threshold where packers tend to bid up, if BB falls further it’s tough to expect higher cash next week