Corn – Exports expected strong today at 1200K+, OI suggests cash selling eased yesterday
↑ Exports are expected strong again today at 1200K+, would be the 6th strong report in a row
↔ Open interest was down 13K suggesting cash selling may have slowed (even fund short covering?)
↑↓ Chart support for May is the recent low of 424 ½, resistance is a 6 month downtrend line at 444
↔ The 10 day forecast maps have only light rains over most planting areas, right now this suggests planting can get off to a solid start for those wanting to start soon
↔ We should expect next week to start seeing more day to day reactions to weather maps
Beans – Exports expected slightly poor around last week’s sales of 384K, cash selling slowed
↔ Exports are expected to be moderate around 400K or just under that level
↔ Cash selling looked to slow in beans as well but unlike corn, beans have not seen regular rounds of positive fundamental news unless exports pick up to 500K+ today
↓ The bean chart has a short term grind lower going on the chart, not looking as sideways as corn
↑ The dollar eased back yesterday from a recent rally, may help bean/wheat exports if that continues
↔ Day to day weather influence is still likely 2 weeks away from affecting bean futures
Wheat – Weather remains mostly dry for HRW areas, dollar eased, Russian headlines add support
↑ Most HRW areas remain dry for 10 days on this morning’s forecast maps
↑ An easing of the dollar would be expected to affect wheat more than any other grain market
↔ Another Russian exporter was seen having trouble getting export certifications which may have helped add support yesterday, other export companies out of RU should make up these losses
Cattle – NE traded anywhere from $3 lower to steady yesterday, BB still moving lower, choppy trade
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.86 Select -2.07 packer BE at 189.93, packer cushion $4.17
↔ NE started trade yesterday $3 lower up to steady, a bulk of the trades were $1 lower
↓ BB continues to move lower, it is picking up speed to the downside as well and may soon suggest no bounce back at all from the panic bird flu if it continues lower like it has been
↔ We need to keep a constant watch for more bird flu headlines but now the largest concern has become the falling boxed beef, it is not just easing but now aggressively setting back
↔ Packers have maintained some solid cash bids so far despite the lower BB but with gross profits falling close to zero, that is likely to change which futures are pre pricing in