One week bounce in soybean sales. Old and new crop concerns remain.

Brazil has a discount vs. the US for both old crop delivery, and new crop. Concerning, their new crop bids have now widened to a $33 per tonne discount, $0.91 per bushel.

Sales of 556,453 tonnes were reported for old crop soybeans. The trade estimate was 375,000 – 850,000. This week's bounce in sales contained three overnight purchases. There are no more on the books at this time.

USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are currently -16% from average. The remainder of the year is normally one with minimal sales. To meet USDA’s goal the remaining weeks through August need to improve to +97% from average. This week's one good sale was +51% vs. average. The prior four weeks were only -17% vs. average.

If remaining sales “improve” to +25% vs. average we'll miss USDA's goal by -36 million bushels. Remaining sales of even with the average would be a miss of -49.

NEW CROP

Historically, pre-marketing year bookings are not a good match with final export numbers. However, given Brazil's sharp price discount during our time for seasonal sales, we have concern. Current bookings are the lowest in 19 years. USDA sees new crop sales -7% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -82% from the five year average.

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