One positive new crop soybean sales week. Many more are needed.

When including Brazil's shipping advantage we are near parity with them on export bids. They are more competitive for far into new crop bids.

At this time of year, with only 3 weeks and 2 days left in the old crop marketing year our focus is on shipments rather than sales. USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date shipments are currently -14% from average. The remainder of the year can see shipments -20% from average and meet USDA's whole-year goal.  This week was -38% from average. The prior four weeks were -29%. For now, we would suggest shipments are near the target, perhaps lightly below

New crop bookings were much better than overnight sales would have suggested at 1,344,197 tonnes. This was 6% over the five year average for that specific week, 1,270,149. One good week though, does not fix a general trend. Year to date bookings, 5.865 million tonnes, are the second lowest in 17 years. USDA sees new crop sales -5% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -50% from the five year average.

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