Old crop soybean shipments falter. More new crop sales needed.

There has been a moderate change with Brazil's near term delivery bids. With their shipping advantage current pricing is near parity. That is an improvement from prior weeks. New crop bids remain in their favor.

Sales of 325,423 tonnes were reported for US old crop soybean export sales. The trade estimate was 100,000 – 300,000.

At this time of year, with only 4 weeks and 2 days left in the old crop marketing year our focus is on shipments rather than sales. USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date shipments are currently -13% from average. The remainder of the year can see shipments -26% from average and meet USDA's whole-year goal.  This week was -37% from average. The prior four weeks saw shipments -27%. For now, we would suggest shipments are near the target, perhaps lightly below

New crop bookings, ahead of the September 1 start of the new marketing year, have been a concern. They remain a concern. This week was not as bad as previous ones. At 985,206 tonnes it was only lightly under the five year average of 1,037,869. Year to date bookings, 4.521 million tonnes, are the second lowest in 18 years. USDA sees new crop sales -7% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -57% from the five year average.

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