Old crop soybean sales remain a concern. New crop bookings lowest in 22 years.

Brazil is currently $7 per metric tonne cheaper than the US on a port to port basis. Including their shipping advantage they are $17 - $21 cheaper. Though this has narrowed in recent months, they still have an advantage.

Sales of 377,098 tonnes were reported for soybeans. The trade estimate was 150,000 – 550,000. Included in this sale was one overnight purchase from China. There are three other sales that will apply to next week totaling 330,00 tonnes.

USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are currently -17% from average. The remainder of the year is normally one with minimal sales. To meet USDA’s goal the remaining weeks through August need to improve to +87% from average. This week's sale, including one Chinese purchase, was even with the average. Of the past 22 weeks, none have met this +87% goal. We need to see continued Chinese purchases.

If remaining sales “improve” to +25% vs. average we'll miss USDA's goal by -40 million bushels. Remaining sales of even with the average would be a miss of -56.

NEW CROP

Though it is early to panic about new crop, there is growing evidence that concern is warranted. Bids for extended delivery, in the heart of the seasonal US peak for soybean export sales, show Brazil is cheaper than the US by $27 per tonne, $0.72 per bushel. The current 1,039,631 tonne booking is the lowest in 22 years. USDA sees new crop sales -7% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -82% from the five year average.

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