Old and new crop soybeans continue to struggle.

Brazil's clear price advantage has changed. Near term delivery still gives them the nod. Extended delivery is now mixed.

Sales of 282,379 tonnes were reported for US old crop soybean export sales. The trade estimate was 200,000 – 600,000.

USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are currently -16% from average. The remainder of the year is normally one with minimal sales. To meet USDA’s goal the remaining weeks through August need to improve to +163% from average. This week's sale was -3% vs. average. It brings the four week total to +10% vs. average.

If remaining sales “improve” to +25% vs. average we'll miss USDA's goal by -43 million bushels. Remaining sales of even with the average would be a miss of -51.

NEW CROP

We should be seeing overnight export sales of new crop soybeans each week. That would be normal. Additionally, given the recent change in price with Brazil for some new crop bids, we should be seeing at least something. Instead, new crop bookings remain at the lowest level for this time in 19 years. USDA sees new crop sales -7% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -81% from the five year average.

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