Old and new crop soybean export sales warrant concern.

Brazil is currently $6 per metric tonne cheaper than the US on a port to port basis. Including their shipping advantage they are $16 - $20 cheaper. Though this has narrowed in recent months, they still have an advantage. We are also a little concerned as their bids for extended delivery, in the heart of the seasonal US peak for soybean export sales, are still cheaper than the US.

Sales of 3189,557 tonnes were reported for soybeans. The trade estimate was 1750,000 – 650,000.

USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are currently -17% from average. The remainder of the year is normally one with minimal sales. To meet USDA’s goal the remaining weeks through August need to improve to +72% from average. This week's sale was -20% from average. Of the past 21 weeks, none have met this goal.

If remaining sales “improve” to +20% vs. average we'll miss USDA's goal by -40 million bushels. Remaining sales of even with the average would be a miss of -56. For next week's report Allendale is currently -35 million from USDA's whole-year view. We expect further revisions lower in the coming months.

Though it is early to panic about new crop, there is growing evidence that concern is warranted. The current 1,036,611 tonne booking is the lowest in 19 years.

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