Old and new crop soybean export sales remain a concern.

When including Brazil's shipping advantage they hold a moderate price advantage for old crop. It must be noted their big new crop advantage has narrowed in. Sales of 282,868 tonnes were reported for US old crop soybean export sales. The trade estimate was 300,000 – 600,000.

USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are currently -16% from average. The remainder of the year is normally one with minimal sales. To meet USDA’s goal the remaining weeks through August need to improve to +127% from average. This week's sale, +1% vs. average, returns back to the general pace after one good week.

If remaining sales “improve” to +25% vs. average we'll miss USDA's goal by -41 million bushels. Remaining sales of even with the average would be a miss of -51.

NEW CROP

Historically, pre-marketing year bookings are not a good match with final export numbers. However, given Brazil's sharp price discount during our time for seasonal sales, we have concern. Current bookings are the lowest in 19 years. USDA sees new crop sales -7% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -81% from the five year average.

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