NOPA April soybean crush surprisingly low.

NOPA's monthly soybean crush report, after mostly wins all year, was a surprise in April. It was a surprise enough that we verified the number with Reuters newswire. NOPA reported only 166.034 million bushels for April processing. That was far under the 183.072 trade estimate. It was -4.2% from last year. This is a surprise after the year has run +2.9% to +12.6% each month so far. Year to date runs come to 1.474 billion bushels, +5.1%. USDA did not raise their whole-year goal last week, still at 2.300 (+4.0%). That means the remainder of the year needs to run +1.6%.

We have been expecting to clearly exceed USDA's general crush goal for months. However, this is strongly needed as an offset to poor export sales. Today's disappointing report removes some of the needed help. Lowering our remaining year hopes to now +4% to +7% we are likely down to an overage vs. USDA of +16 to +37 million bushels.