New year sees a struggle for soybean export sales.

The new crop year for soybeans started on September 1. Today's report gives us wrapped up activity for the old crop year and updates on current crop sales as of September 5.

USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service reported old crop shipments as of 8/31 at 1.635 billion bushels. FAS required reporting does not capture all sales. In the prior five years there was a 43 million bushel discrepancy between FAS shipments and WASDE exports.. That would put ending exports likely at 1.678 billion, under USDA's current view of 1.700.

Brazil has a clear price advantage for anything requiring more than 30 day shipment.

USDA's current goal for the year is 1.850 billion bushels. That would be -5% vs. the prior five year average. Current crop sales come to 745 million bushels. This is -30% under the five year average of 745. The remainder of the year needs to run +9% vs. the five year average. We are behind USDA's goal.

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