New crop soybean export sales surpass expectations.

When including Brazil's shipping advantage we are near parity with them on export bids for immediate delivery. They are more competitive with extended new crop bids.

At this time of year, with only 2 weeks and 2 days left in the old crop marketing year our focus is on shipments rather than sales. USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date shipments are currently -14% from average. The remainder of the year can see shipments -16% from average and meet USDA's whole-year goal.  This week was -34% from average. The prior four weeks were -25%. For now, we would suggest shipments are near the target, perhaps lightly below

New crop bookings were better than overnight sales would have suggested at 1,676,879 tonnes. The trade was expecting 800,000 - 1,350,000. There were only 332,000 in announced overnight sales. This was 2% over the five year average for that specific week, 1,643,640. The new crop sales deficit clearly remains. Year to date bookings, 7.5 million tonnes, are the second lowest in 16 years. USDA sees new crop sales -5% from the prior five year average. Current bookings are -44% from the five year average.

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