Corn – Ethanol expected strong today, most traders not interested in moving far from 400
↑ Ethanol has slowly improved and run strong the last 3 weeks, it will be expected strong again today
↓ Overnight continues to see the most active selling of the day which continued again last night
↑ Open interest is falling but very slowly which suggests funds are short covering but very slowly
↔The USDA made statements this year they feel they can make acreage changes faster so we may see a very rare acreage decline on Monday, most pre traders will not put their money on a “maybe” though
↔We will soon see the average estimate for carryout, price is still factoring in a 2 bu yield increase
Beans – Still seeing solid weather maps, fund short covering slower in beans, yield increase likely
↓ It’s tough to look at the weather maps and not think they are at least “solid” the next 10 days
↑ There are signs of fund short covering in beans but at an even slower pace than in corn
↓ Pre traders are likely to keep pressure on, expecting about a 1 bu yield increase Monday
↑ If beans fall to 1000 then we would expect the same improved support that has been seen in corn at 400, it doesn’t mean 1000 can’t be broken but we should find more speculative buyers around that level
↔Weekly exports have been improving and last week were strong, we will see if tomorrow continues
Wheat – Overseas higher on expectations of Egypt and Algeria looking for sizable imports soon
↑ Overseas tends to react to large Egypt buying more than US traders do, but given US wheat is following overnight that at least means some support to our market as well
↔It is highly unlikely that US wheat will be involved in any of the Egypt or Algeria buying
↑ There are signs of light fund short covering in wheat as well
Cattle – BB eased back again looking sideways/choppy, signs that funds are selling cattle
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.13 Select -0.44 packer BE at 195.40, packer cushion $6.63
↔BB eased back yesterday taking away a positive outlook and again replacing it with sideways/neutral
↓ There are signs of light fund selling, funds are exiting positions in many different markets and for cattle that means selling while it means buying for all other Ag markets
↔Funds selling is likely to be small enough to cause small setbacks but not a new move lower
↔Futures finished yesterday priced $7 in last week’s cash again, priced that low even a $1 or $2 lower cash trade could cause a small bounce