Net export cancellation in wheat.

USDA reported a net cancellation of -109,629 tonnes for last week’s wheat activity. The trade estimate was -200,000 – 500,000. USDA’s 725 million bushel export goal, for the year that started June 1, is -20% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are -16% from average. To hit USDA's goal we only need to sell -103% vs. average through May. The general 34 week trend, highly variable, has run -5%. Based on sales we are ahead of USDA's goal.

But the shipment story remains a concern. Year to date shipments are -22%. Needed shipments through May need to improve to +21% from average. This week was -11%. Allendale was -10 million bushels vs. USDA. USDA recently lowered their view by -15. There are likely further declines ahead.

‍