Corn – Possible light fund short covering yesterday, moderate to strong ethanol expected
↑ A moderate (1000K) to strong (1200K) ethanol report is expected today, last week was 1011K
↔ There were signs of light fund short covering yesterday but the OI report wasn’t able to confirm that
↑ It would make sense to expect fund short covering given the recent improvement in exports but
again, we don’t have open interest confirming that just yet so we need to wait for Friday’s COT report
↔ The recent range of 470 ½ to 496 ½ is still holding, much larger resistance is expected near 500
↔ Corn does not have nearly as many speculators in this market as it had a month ago, that will likely
mean slower moves and less speculative buying unless fundamental news supports new buying
Beans – SA still drier days 1 – 5, active rains days 6 – 10 except for southern BRA (a good thing?)
↑ A drier 1 – 5 day forecast may be all that is needed to find better support near 1190 fair value where
increased support was expected anyway
↓ The 6 – 10 day map still suggests a return to active rains for all areas except southern BRA which has
been an area of concern lately as seeing too much rain
↑ Talk is that BRA has only limited sellers, not enough to meet China’s buying needs, for now just talk
↑ Bottom line is that better support was expected near 1290 fair value and yesterday’s low was 1294
Wheat – Two China purchases in a row, trade will be looking for more of China buying CHI wheat
↑ After 2 days in a row of 8 AM sales to China, overnight will be expecting that pattern to continue
↑ March CHI took out all resistance levels set the last 2 months, next resistance in March CHI is 670
↔ Exports should continue as the #1 factor for wheat movement and exports have recently improved
Cattle – NE traded cash lower yesterday, BB hit hard again, feeder index +0.51
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.24 select -3.70 packer BE at 175.54, packer cushion $1.22
↓ BB hit hard again yesterday, already causing packers to bid lower yesterday
↓ NE reported a cash trade of 172 late yesterday (last week average for NE was 174.66)
↔ Feeder index was +0.51 which was higher but does not offset the previous day which was -2.62
↔ Yesterday saw the same speculative buying as seen the previous Tuesday, not sure why speculators
are choosing Tuesday as a profit taking day for shorts, fundamental news did not support a bounce at all
↔ Last week on Wednesday fat futures were calm before aggressive selling again Thursday, Friday and
Monday, we will see if this is a pattern that continues