Ethanol production last week posted a moderate rebound to 1.019 million barrels per day. This was +3.7% from last year. It is a rebound from the prior five problem weeks but still under our needed rate.

USDA's corn for ethanol goal is +5.3% from last year at 5.450 billion bushels. With our lower production efficiency this year, -1.0% in Q1 and -1.6% in Q2, we don't need +5.3% for ethanol production. Using a blanket assumption of -1.3% that would put our goal with ethanol production at +4.0%.

Year to date production is +3.9% from last year. The remainder of the year through August needs to run +4.2%. This remains is a moderate concern.  The last time we had a +4.2% run was seven weeks ago.

Gasoline demand last week was positive at +4.6% from last year. The year as a whole though, September 1 to current, is -0.3%.

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