Corn – GTE unchanged at 65%, trade expected it to move down 1%, OI surprisingly only down 2K
↑ Yesterday appeared to show aggressive fund short covering but with OI only down 2K it isn’t quite to clear to assume that or it may also mean the buying was light and there was more a lack of sellers
↔GTE remained at 65%, strong, it’s likely trade already has thoughts on yield they are sticking to
↑ The recent improvement to core fundamentals has been exports lately seeing a sizable bounce back, so far it has gotten demand back up to expectations but if it continues, it will exceed USDA estimates
↓ The September crop report is a week from tomorrow, some analysts are already calling for no change in yield but that may be too quick of an assumption, at least a small additional increase is possible
Beans – GTE down 2% at 65%, still suggests higher than current yield, more 8 AM sales expected
↓ Even with the GTE rating down 2% it still suggests a yield slightly over the current 53.2
↑ More 8 AM sales are expected, likely on almost a daily basis, seeing regular small/moderate buying
↑ The weekly totals for exports are the impressive factor with last week at 2533K which was above even the highest estimate, it will be tough to match that this week but strong exports still expected
↔Like corn, OI only down 1500 contracts which doesn’t suggest aggressive fund buying yesterday
↔The 10 day forecast still looks almost entirely clear, combine reports should start up somewhat soon
Wheat – Fund short covering likely yesterday, exports improving, overseas recovering
↑ Wheat had the largest open interest decline yesterday of 6K suggesting fund short covering
↑ Exports are improving which is not only supportive from a demand aspect but also could cause trade’s attention to turn back to US factors instead of simply following overseas
↔Overseas wheat is on a multi-day recovery, maybe not as big of an influence but still supportive
Cattle – Sizable BB bounce, 20K lower showlist, strong packer profits, all suggests $1 - $2 higher cash
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.33 select +4.29 packer BE at 193.92, packer cushion $11.00
↑ This week is working on a 20K lower showlist which helps to imply a higher cash trade
↑ More importantly packer profits are at $11 which means packers can pay higher cash this week
↓ Last week’s average cash trade was -0.40 (182.92) which was disappointing, once again showing open market cash reports lean heavily to the positive side and lower trades are not reported equally
↑ Futures are still priced $2 under last week’s cash which means if this week can trade $1 to $2 higher than there may be a $2 to $3 bounce in futures but only likely if BB continues to improve