Corn – Funds exiting shorts ahead of acreage, offset by producer selling, price movement minimal
↔ Funds have exited 85K shorts over the last 3 weeks, last week doing so quietly price wise
↑↓ Last week showed signs that producer selling is there to offset fund buying and that may have been
seen again yesterday with little price movement but a 20K increase in open interest
↔ While funds need to plan weeks ahead when pre trading acreage it is unlikely we will see much
activity from other traders until next week, would expect better general support then
↓ The 3 month downtrend (441 ½) and the 50 day MA (444) are still acting as technical resistance
↑ Ethanol/exports are expected strong again this week, weekly demand data remains supportive
Beans – BRA harvest in line with last year, BRA producer selling active as expected this time of year
↔ BRA harvest is at 63% which is mostly inline with where they were last year at this time of 62%
↓ With BRA harvest still right in the middle of the most active time of year we are seeing an increase in
BRA producer selling which we would expect right now
↓ US exports are down more than expected (-19% year over year), USDA has factored in -13.7% YOY
↔ Funds may be covering more shorts, like corn, but if they are it is being offset with producer selling
Wheat – Russian headlines have overseas and US wheat choppy lately
↑↓ Russia headlines of attacking Ukrainian ports once again has wheat trade choppy lately
↑ Russian wheat prices have firmed lately, for now slowing a long lasting slide lower
↔ Headlines may offer short term influence but overseas wheat price trends are still the #1 guide until
the acreage report, following that most attention should turn to US HRW weather
Cattle – BB higher again, showlist +400, active move yesterday but still trading in the range
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.43 Select +0.65 packer BE at 195.70, packer cushion $9.85
↑ BB still moving higher, keeping packer profits near $10 which this year is a solid number for packers
↔ Last week’s average cash trade was higher but not as much as expected +$1.18 at 185.85
↔ Yesterday’s trade was active starting at the low end of the range seen the last 40 days and quickly
moving up near the top end of the range but in the end, still trading in the range
↑↓ If we follow recent weeks pattern of trade we may expect support today/tomorrow on thoughts of
a strong cash trade due to higher BB then see an easing back again after Thursday’s weights report