Corn – March still gravitating near 480, funds covered 9K shorts, may cover more shorts to Jan 1
↔ If news remains mostly quiet this week then we may expect March to continue trading near 480
↑ Funds may offer a light bullish bias, they are still short 152K in corn and may continue lightly covering
some shorts into year end, last week they covered 9K
↔↑ Ethanol remains moderate in recent weeks with exports slightly supportive
↔ Volume of trade may remain moderate early this week but is likely to fade to some of the slowest
trade of the year going into the end of this week and into next week
Beans – Maps show light rains all areas days 1 – 5 then solid rains days 6 – 10, more 8 AM sales?
↓ SA weather maps further improved this morning showing light/moderate rains for most areas days
1 – 5 then increased rains for all areas days 6 – 10, tough to find any size area that is missed
↔ While a bulk of trade follows the GFS weather maps it is important to note that this morning the
Euro maps also agree with this forecast which could limit buyers due to SA maps
↔ We will see if the recent 8 AM sales streak continues, last week totaled 1437K in 8 AM sales
↓ Funds sold 6K longs on the COT report, they are still long 31K so some additional light selling might be
seen into the end of the year but likely at a slow pace to offer only light resistance
Wheat – Easing from Friday’s levels but still seeing solid exports and moderate fund short covering
↓ Overnight eased from Friday’s bounce as most in trade feel the recent streak of China buying is done,
that will likely keep prices better supported than before but exports not likely to start a new bounce
↑ Light support may be seen from funds covering shorts into the end of year, Friday’s COT report
showed they covered 27K and are still short 70K, more light short covering may be expected
↔ March CHI slightly better supported with fund short covering, now in the 610 – 620 area
Cattle – Friday’s BB higher, still the #1 guide, ave cash trade tough to estimate, funds lightly selling
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice -0.68 select +2.56 packer BE at 175.41, packer cushion $4.43
↑ BB was higher Friday, slowly recovering and still the #1 guide for price movement going forward
↔ Last week’s average cash trade is tough to estimate, we will simply have to wait for the report today,
talk was of cash trades anywhere from $1.50 lower to steady with the previous week
↔ We will keep watching other factors that have offered influence like the feeder index, showlist, and
various chart levels but keeping BB as our #1 guide has worked well so we will continue using that most
↓ Funds sold 5K and are liquidating some of their last 23K longs going into end of the year