Managed Money Gets "Flat"

Corn – Funds sellers of 3K, support seen overnight near 400, forecast suggests active harvest

↑ All 5 days last week saw the best support from overnight traders and that looks to be the case again last night, are they anticipating strong 8 AM sales or disappointing yield reports?

↔Funds appeared quiet last week and Friday’s COT report confirmed that, funds sellers of 3K corn

↔The 1 – 5 day map has a tropical storm impacting the Delta likely adding support to beans some of which is spilling over to corn, otherwise 2/3 of harvest areas look mostly clear in the 10 day outlook

↑ Friday and last night saw improved support near 400, we will see if that holds as a solid support level

Beans – Funds buyers of 8K, Delta rains in the forecast may helping overnight support, bean oil higher

↑ Funds were buyers of 8K, unlike corn where funds are 38% of record short, in beans they are still 66%

↑ A tropical storm impacts the Delta this week, it is common to see support in beans from that forecast

↑ Palm oil made a strong move higher last night, spilling over to bean oil, spilling over to beans

↔Palm oil saw a surge higher last week in expectation that demand is about to see an improvement, while palm oil is making sizable moves, this is a story for bean traders to at least be aware of

↔China buying slowed last week but it is still likely we could see regular small 8 AM sales this week

Wheat – Funds buyers of 4K, last week’s exports slowed but is not yet a sign of slowed demand again

↑ Funds were buyers of 4K, now short 25K or 15% of record, in wheat it is quite possible funds already see this position as “flat” as there are many times funds never reach truly flat in wheat and stay short

↔Exports slowed last week but over the last 7 weeks have still seen improvement so last week’s slowdown in sales isn’t likely to be seen as a new pattern yet

↔The 10 day forecast is almost wide open for HRW planting

Cattle – Cash trades $2 higher last week with some limited $3 higher reports, BB off lows by just a bit

↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +0.63 select +0.33 packer BE at 186.94, packer cushion $6.28

↑ Trade is likely to start the week with support after seeing $2 and some $3 higher cash trades mostly out of NE, there was a single report of KS being $3 higher but most news from the south was limited

↔Friday’s COF report came in very close to expectations, On Feed 100.6%, Placements 98.6%, marketings 96.4%, all 3 numbers not far off from analysts estimates last week

↔Trade actively pre bought COF Friday, we will see if Placements at 98.6% is enough for support today

↔BB bounced Friday but just barely off 4 month lows, not yet suggesting a new turn higher