Corn – Planting at 49% (54% ave), 1 – 5 day lowered rains slightly, 6 – 10 day raised rains
↑ Planting at 49% is slightly supportive, most of which may have been pre factored in Friday/Monday
↑ There were still signs of fund buying yesterday, we might expect them to slow soon but not seen yet
↓ At one point December corn had almost 3000 sell orders at the price level of 495, this shows the active new crop hedging that is expected the closer Dec gets to 500
↔While funds exiting positions to get flat is an annual occurrence, it is difficult to imagine them wanting to build a long position with planting just 5% behind normal, a larger weather event is needed
Beans – Planting at 35% (34% ave), with planting not behind ave pace there is less support in beans
↓ Planting at 35% was likely faster than trade had expected from recent pre buying, still over average
↓ A case can be made that bean planting remaining over average while corn is below average is simply a sign of a large scale trend for more areas to plant beans first, most in trade will simply react to comparing the planting number to average and won’t know to factor in this new planting trend
↔There is some talk of concern about new tariffs planned to be placed on China, we may see short term headline reaction to this news but a long term slowdown in buying bean products is unlikely
↔Weather remains the short term #1 influence and for corn/beans the 10 day maps are far from clear
Wheat – Planting at 61% (48% ave), HRW GTE unchanged at 50%, moderate rains in HRW 10 day maps
↓ Both planting and GTE turned out to be non issues on yesterday’s reports, may ease some recent pre buying concern, especially seeing GTE unchanged and still at a strong 50%
↑ Russian weather concerns continue, difficult to truly know conditions in that region
↔July CHI wheat has rallied $1.35 with almost no setbacks, a sizable correction is due soon
Cattle – BB bounced actively again just like last Monday, trade likely to remain cautious for now
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +4.38 Select +3.01 packer BE at 186.10, packer cushion $1.83
↔BB put in a sizable bounce yesterday but trade may remain cautious before following that bounce with support, last Monday and Tuesday saw a sizable BB bounce but by Friday it was making new lows
↔A showlist of -5800 is not significant enough to provide much influence
↔It has been mentioned that once packer profits fall low enough packers will find a way to resist paying higher cash and that was seen last week, cash trading +$0.01 on a -36K showlist week