Corn – Exports strong yesterday at 1216K, trade likely to transition to summer mindset next week
↑ Exports were strong as trade expected yesterday at 1216K, last 7 weeks most reports were sub 1000K
↔Planting progress will pass 75% when trade resumes on Tuesday, that will mean traders transitioning
over to a summer mindset where rain makes grain is more important than slowing the last planters
↔Funds remain mostly quiet which could be the case for a while until larger news is seen
↓ Dec corn found more resistance near 490, a level that has become very reliable for both hedgers
knowing where to place new crop sales as well as speculators selling there looking for quick profits
Beans – Chinese buying rumors still talked but quantity is small at 120K and no 8 AM confirmation
↓ Some excitement from China buying rumors might ease as the talk so far is for around 120K which
would be small and there has yet to be any 8 AM sales announcements to confirm the buying
↓ New crop exports have run low so far this year, only 35 mil bu so far vs 94 mil bu last year at this time
↑ Planting is still a concern with 2 rain systems this weekend, then clearing days 4 – 9 then another
system again on day 10, only light support expected as beans are still ahead of normal planting pace
↓ China buying rumors were able to lift November above 1220 briefly yesterday but just like 490 in
corn, active hedge and speculative resistance was seen at that level again
Wheat – New Russia rumors yesterday they might slow exports, trade still supported but choppy
↑ Yesterday saw new rumors that Russia may restrict exports, again just a rumor for now, not any
statements from Russia on that matter
↑ Private analysts continue to lower their Russian crop estimates, no way to confirm this is accurate
↔↓ Maybe the Russian crop was hurt by cold temps and maybe Russia will export less but so far no
confirmation of either, we also might see end of week profit taking ahead of a 3 day weekend
Cattle – BB lower for a 2nd day, cash trades even higher in NE at 193 ($4 higher), COF report today
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.33 Select +0.47 packer BE at 193.65, packer cushion $7.29
↑ Cash trades late yesterday were another $1 higher in NE at 193, now $4 higher for the week
↑ Light pre buying is still expected ahead of today’s COF report with Placements expected 93.9%
↓ Cattle weights remained steady but are now at a new high vs normal at 32 lbs over last year
↔BB down for 2 days is not yet concerning but it is concerning that it is happening right at resistance
↑↓ Trade had mixed reactions yesterday splitting focus between the “right now” positive news ($4
higher cash trade, expected bullish COF) and the bearish longer term issues (lower BB, higher weights)