Light rebound for ethanol production

September - June corn for ethanol usage has totaled 4.510 billion bushels, +5.4% from last year. To meet USDA's current 5.450 billion whole-year goal July and August usage need to run 940 million bushels, +4.8%. Given the fact this year's production efficiency is lower than last year we estimate actual ethanol production only needs to run +3.5% from last year in these two months. That is our goal for July and August ethanol production, +3.5%.

July was a light disappointment at +2.4% year/year. Today's report, covering the second full week of August was positive at 1.098 million barrels per day. Production pace was +4.8%. It offsets a part of the low first week that was only +0.3%. Though we are currently holding USDA's old crop corn for ethanol estimate on our balance sheet we are lightly running behind.

Gasoline usage last week was +3.2%. Since September it has run -0.1%.

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