Corn – Funds bought 31K, now short 71K or 21% of record, trade likely to pre buy the acreage report
↔Funds bought 31K likely through the May crop report, then silent, they are not quite flat yet so some light buying from them is still possible but may not be on the same scale as before
↑ Pre buying today’s planting report is likely, with less fund involvement the bounce may be limited
↑↔Active rains seen over most areas days 1 – 5, rains continue east of the MS river days 6 – 10 but there is a clearing west of the MS river after day 5
↔Until funds return it may be difficult to reach recent highs without another major weather event
Beans – Funds quiet, still short 43K or 25% record, bean planting pace may not fall much under ave
↔Funds were quiet on Friday’s COT report selling just 1K, they seem to be on the sidelines but at some point we can expect buying of the last 43K shorts, they have gotten flat every year since 2007
↑ While corn planting pace has already been under average, bean planting pace is holding solid and may not fall much behind average pace on today’s report
↑ Beans found better support last week than corn, possibly due to a small pickup in 8 AM sales
↔Last week’s export report was 301K so much more is needed on the demand side for beans
Wheat – Russia vs US influence continues, overnight trades Russia fears, day session US conditions
↑↓ Every day last week we saw overnight adding support on fears of Russian production then the day session traders put focus on strong US conditions and eased back, that pattern looks to continue
↔This is not a surprise to see Euro traders focus on overseas issues while US traders focus on strong GTE ratings and possible 3 year highs in KS yields
↔Funds bought 14K, still short 28K, wheat is the one market funds do not always get flat in
Cattle – Strong $3 higher cash trades Friday, BB still moving higher and now approaching resistance
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice +3.30 Select +0.89 packer BE at 193.94, packer cushion $9.67
↑ Support likely to start the week as traders look for an average cash trade +$3
↑ BB is still moving higher, going from new lows early last week to approaching a BB resistance area right now, choice + select is at 610.85 and we have seen resistance twice around 617
↔The fast bounce in BB is likely from a slaughter slowdown rather than a sudden surge in consumer buying but we won’t know that for sure until later this week
↔Whatever the cause of the BB bounce we still see that as #1 influence and it is still working to track it closely, also now needs to be watched closely to see if resistance is found on choice +s elect near 617