January US soybean crush slips due to weather. Still ahead of USDA's goal.

US domestic soybean crush is expected by both private and public sources to push to a new record in this 2023/24 marketing year. It is also expected to see another increase yet ahead in 2024/25. The question is about whether this old crop demand is ahead or behind USDA's 2.300 billion bushel view for this year. That view of crush would be +4.0% from last year.

Friday at 2 pm USDA released the updated monthly crush numbers. Normally we would suggest the previously released January NOPA numbers are more important to the trade. They cover 95% of US activity and are normally right on USDA's later-released numbers. Interesting to see there was a little discrepancy between the two this month. USDA's whole-US January crush was 194.8 million bushels. This was only +1.9% from last year. The NOPA view for January, normally covering 95% of all US crush, was +3.8%.

With a poor January run, at only +1.9% year/year due to weather, the September - January run is 975 million bushels. That is +4.6% from last year. To meet USDA's current view the remaining seven months can run only +3.5%. If remaining year crush is +4.0% we'll surpass USDA's goal by 6 million bushels. A +5.0% increase for the remainder would mean +19. A +6.0% pace would be +32.

For Friday's WASDE report Allendale is currently +30 million bushels vs. USDA for domestic crush.

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