January feedlot placements smallest in eight years.

Cattle on Feed this afternoon would be slightly negative. Inflows into feedlots last month, a weather impacted month, were counted 1.792 million head. That was -7.4% from last year. The trade estimate was -11.6% from last year due (ALDL -11.8%). Estimates for placements are made from moderately reliable published sale barn volumes and farm to feedlot direct placements. Given the weather event we have no qualms about saying the direct placement numbers were a guess. The numbers were slightly bearish but making an accurate estimates for that type of month is tough. These placements determine a part of the July - October timeframe. This was the smallest January inflow in eight years.

Marketings of finished cattle are seen -0.1% from last year. That was near the -0.2% expectation (ALDL -0.3%). This helps trim the January 1 On Feed total from +1.7% to February 1's +0.4%. The trade expectation was +2.1% (ALDL +0.2). The general story for 2024 beef supplies is unchanged. We'll have adequate numbers in the first six months then a step down in offered supply in the second half.

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