Corn – Open interest down 11K yesterday, if we see this for 2 more days may look like short covering
↔ Yesterday may have seen signs of fund short covering with a small bounce and OI down 11K but it
will take at least 2 more days to have evidence that we are seeing fund short covering
↔ If yesterday was small fund short covering then it will appear on Friday’s COT report
↔ The USDA Outlook forum on Thursday will be the focus of this week’s trade, the largest focus from
their numbers will be planted acreage although that is still an estimate and not based on data
↑ New 3 year lows were made Sunday night at 427 ¾, the area where better support is expected
Beans – BRA harvest at 24% compared to 17% last year, some estimating a lofty carryout on Thursday
↔ BRA harvest is at 24% which is slightly ahead of last year’s pace is 17% at this time
↓ Some are estimating the USDA will put out an early estimate on 2024 carryout tomorrow as high as
0.400, that number seems quite high with our own personal estimates around 0.350
↔ Open interest did not decline for beans, showing no signs of fund short covering yesterday
↔ With both South America and China on holiday this week total volume of trade may continue to be
lower than normal for this time of year
Wheat – Overseas just slightly lower last night, KC testing 3 year lows, MN making 3 year lows
↓ Overseas was just slightly lower last night but still offering at least some spillover resistance
↓ KC wheat is within 10 cents of 3 year lows, MN wheat made new 3 year lows last night
↑ Solid exports are likely to keep CHI wheat better supported than KC/MN
Cattle – Showlist -16K, average cash trade +3.44, feeder index higher, funds took yesterday off
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.04 select +1.94 packer BE at 184.50, packer cushion $2.84
↑ Showlist for this week is down 16K which gives a first impression of $1 to $2 higher cash
↔ After yesterday’s average cash trade was higher and futures were slightly lower, futures still finished
the day priced about $2 over last week’s cash, not a large gap but worth noting
↔ Fund activity looked to be light or possibly on the sidelines yesterday, given they are long only 23%
of record they have more room for buying if they choose to
↔ BB slightly higher yesterday but still clearly in the neutral category as it has been for 2 weeks