Corn – Exports poor on Friday, funds sellers of 20K, index fund buying expected on the close today
↓ Overnight cautious after seeing poor exports on Friday and funds selling 20K on the COT report
↔ It is likely that most of that fund selling seen on the COT report was from the first day of the trading
year on Tuesday where there was active fund selling, there has been little sign from them since
↓ There continues to be pre-selling of Friday’s January crop report, if that report is bearish to justify a
fair price under 480 it would likely come from supply (raised yield, raised acreage, etc)
↑ Index funds should be expected to be buyers on the close today as well as tomorrow and Wednesday
↔ Analysts estimates for Friday’s report should be out either late today or early tomorrow morning
Beans – Poor exports Friday, rains still at least moderate for all SA areas in the 10 day forecast
↓ Rains in the 10 day SA forecast continued to be the main driver for a lower move in beans
↓ Funds were sellers of 16K, like corn most of that was likely done last Tuesday, not much activity since
↔ Also like corn, a bearish report on Friday to justify the current price level would most likely have to
come from the supply-side (raised acreage, raised yield), the current carryout of 245 suggests $13.00
↔ The March chart does not offer much influence, next chart level of support is 1145 ¼
↔ CONAB should update their BRA production estimate sometime early this week
Wheat – A bit more active trade lately, overseas wheat continues a slow grind lower
↓ Poor exports from Friday along with seeing overseas wheat trading lower is offering regular
consistent resistance on US wheat recently
↔ Funds were basically neutral last week in wheat while they were sellers of corn/beans
↔ Trade has been quite choppy lately and this has happened at a time funds have been quieter
Cattle – Friday’s BB higher, much more is needed to offset the 2 week slide, funds quiet
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice +1.26 select +0.71 packer BE at 170.40, packer cushion -$1.88
↓ Futures remain defensive after seeing BB move actively lower over the last 2 weeks
↔ Today’s average cash trade report should be around $2 higher
↓ BB bounced on Friday but again much more is needed with gross packer profits still negative
↔ Friday’s COT report showed funds quiet, buyers of just 513 contracts, currently long 17K, this shows
that funds might be done selling but have not turned to being buyers yet
↔ The first light chart support seen in April is at 171.075, first resistance is at 175.50