Corn – First planting pace report was 2%, resistance continues to appear from active cash selling
↔ Yesterday’s first planting report was at 2% which is just over the 1% average for this week
↓ Last week’s Quarterly Stocks report was up 24% for corn this year showing that producers are still
holing an aggressive amount of corn and continued making aggressive cash sales yesterday
↔ Producers have recently taken the approach of “cash sell any bounce we can get”, not likely to drive
corn lower but is likely to quickly limit any bounces that are seen until this cash selling slows
↔ Nationwide as a whole, soil moisture levels are off to one of the best starts seen in years
Beans – Like corn, trading at the low end of a recent 3 week sideways range, no planting data yet
↔ Like corn, beans have been trading sideways/choppy over the last 3 weeks and is currently priced at
the low end of that range which for May is around 1180
↓ Producers hold a bit more beans on hand than expected, not as extreme as corn but likely seeing
producer cash selling like corn, just on a slightly smaller scale
↔ The 3 week range in May beans is around 1180 to 1215, for May corn near 430 to 445
↔ There isn’t planting data yet but trade is still mostly focused on US weather over SA news
Wheat – First HRW rating was 56%, last fall it finished at 50%, best start to GTE ratings in 8 years
↓ The first HRW rating was 56%, it finished last fall at 50% and is the highest starting rating in 8 years
↔ The topsoil moisture map shows no extreme wet or dry conditions for all growing areas including
HRW areas which means the 56% starting GTE rating may have been expected by trade yesterday
↔ Trade separated from following overseas wheat both Thursday and yesterday, we will now see trade
put most focus on US weather, GTE ratings and exports (exports strong last week at 617K)
Cattle – Bird flu story #3 yesterday, BB lower, showlist +30K, not much positive news right now
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.98 Select -1.64 packer BE at 193.72, packer cushion $7.13
↓ Our 3 Monday reports were all slightly bearish 1) Last week ave cash trade slightly lower than
expected at 185.76, 2) BB lower and 3) Showlist +30,000 this week
↓ Yesterday saw a 2nd round of larger scale panic trade on another bird flu story that a person who was
handling dairy cattle with bird flu was also tested as positive for bird flu
↔ The base fundamentals of BB moving lower suggests a lower move by itself but obviously the panic
trade from bird flu headlines has accelerated the recent downwards move by triple or possibly more
↔ Short term the bird flu panic trade is immeasurable, will we get 1 more headline? 3 more? 6 more?