↑ = Supportive to the Market | ↓ = Adds Pressure to the Market | ↔ = Neutral to the Market
Corn – Funds sold 22K on COT, yesterday slid to new contract lows that did not appear fund related
↓ Yesterday’s COT report had funds sellers of 22K, now short 186K or 58% of record
↔ March made new contract lows yesterday but open interest suggested it was not active fund selling
↑ An overnight bounce in beans added very light spill over support to corn
↑ Exports have improved the last 2 weeks and ethanol also remains strong, recent fundamentals
suggest a solid supported sideways move and potentially a small bounce if exports remain strong
↔ When the next bounce is seen resistance would be expected around 490, a bit lower than before
Beans – Overnight reacting to slow BRA planting pace and may be looking for new China buying
↑ There was talk again yesterday along the lines of “China is about to buy again”, as always we will wait
to see if there is any confirmation of this talk at 8 AM
↑ BRA planting is still at 74% (84% is average), some still thinking lost acreage due to rain
↓ US/BRA price differences have narrowed but BRA is still lower cost for the next 4 months
↔ When watching weather maps we will want to keep in mind the crucial timeframe for weather
affecting BRA production is during the month of January
↓ Funds were light sellers of 6K on the COT report, now long 82K or 32% of record, funds less active in
beans as a whole than many might expect
Wheat – Exports poor the last 2 weeks despite lower cost than EU wheat for importers, GTE 50%
↓ Despite US wheat being lower cost to importers than EU wheat, US exports have still been
disappointing the last 2 weeks
↓ The HRW GTE rating remains strong up 2% at 50% and at a 4 year high
↑ Some small bounce may be expected after moving to new 2 year lows yesterday
Cattle – Cash feeder price down aggressively under $210, showlist -7500, BB lower again
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.78 select -0.96 packer BE at 179.40, packer cushion $2.42
↓ Talk cash feeders traded under $210 yesterday which is very low given futures still priced at $212
↓ A surprisingly low cash trade in feeders started the setback which was then likely helped further to
the downside by fund selling, open interest was down 6K yesterday
↔ The COT report showed funds as sellers of 2K last week, still leaving them long 39K or 25% record
↔ Showlist at -7400 and BB slightly higher are lightly supportive, the question is if it will be enough to
offset the bearish influence from feeders and continued fund liquidation